Trigger Watch
Megala defines observable trigger events alongside its assessments. This public preview shows how each event, status and source report are connected.
Browse country previewsInterface preview — illustrative entries. These sample statuses demonstrate the feed format and are not verified current events or live monitoring.
The defined condition has not been met.
Available evidence suggests the threshold may be nearing.
The stated condition was met; this alone does not change a verdict.
The single clearest signal that currency reform is becoming credible — and that entry timing is shifting from early to real.
Defined in: Ethiopia After the 2026 ElectionConverts the privatization pipeline from announcement to precedent; reprices every subsequent transaction.
Defined in: Ethiopia After the 2026 ElectionThe escalation branch of the outlook. Suspends the entry case regardless of reform progress.
Defined in: Ethiopia After the 2026 ElectionMarks the point where the reform program stops consuming its own political capital — the entry signal turning durable.
Defined in: Frontier Africa's FX ReformsRepatriation risk is the operational constraint on every Nigeria thesis; depth, not the headline rate, resolves it.
Defined in: Frontier Africa's FX ReformsThe trap pattern: reform as financing bridge rather than regime change. Downgrades the entry case to Wait.
Defined in: Frontier Africa's FX ReformsThe falsification test built into the flagship program. One confirmed case forces the framework to be revised in public.
Defined in: Why Foreign Investors Fail in Africa